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September 28, 2020

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Michel, si tu connais pas déjà, la meilleure analyse/source de sondages, c'est FiveThirtyEight
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Il y a une modélisation très très costaude derrière, basée sur les tendances de fond, état par état, et un rating de la qualité et des biais de chaque sondage.
Ils avaient eux aussi prévu Clinton en 2016 (en étant moins catégorique que d'autres), mais avaient prévu 95% des résultats (Sénat compris) en 2008 et 2012...

Perso, c'est ma boule de cristal préférée.

merci, très intéressant !

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