Quick Tought On Autonomous Driving & Tesla FSD !

Posté initialement sur Twitter le mercredi 20 mars.

 

In the 80s, no one could believe that a computer would ever be as good as a Chess Grandmaster. 20 years later, in the early 2000s Deep Blue was the 1st one to beat the then World Champion @Kasparov63.

There’s now no more competition, computers are miles ahead, even the World Champion doesn’t stand the slimmest chance to beat the computer.

The Go Game was the last “intellectual” game to be cracked by a computer as it is extremely complex. It happened in 2015 with AlphaGo.

I’m absolutely convinced it’s the same for autonomous driving. It’s only a question of software framework and computing power.

So it will be cracked, it’s just a matter of WHEN.

With the incredible step changes shown by #FSD v12.3, along with the exponential computing power #Tesla has, one may feel that it’s right around the corner (say in the coming 12 months).

But we may be wrong, it may take a bit more time.

But it doesn’t really matter ! The point now is to take autonomous driving for granted and start figuring out the disruptive changes this breakthrough technology will usher in the economy, in our society and in our daily lives.

Lives will be saved, transportation cost will dramatically fall, owning a personal car may become an exception, roads and cities will have to be reshaped, etc. And as with all breakthrough technologies, so many fortunes will be made…and lost…

The same reasoning should also apply with humanoid robots, and remember that Tesla is a company specializing in making robots on wheels and on feet, at scale…

The first ones, doing really useful tasks in a cost effective way in factories or warehouses, should appear along more or less the same timing as autonomous driving (Musk has recently announced first commercialized Optimus robots by late 2025).

Comments

[Vincent]

Du coup, cette année, pas de reportage photo sur le marathon ? :o)

[Nono]

Bonjour Michel, je lis dans divers médias que le 6 avril elon Musk aurait annoncé l'abandon du projet "model 2 " , la voiture à 25k€ , pour se concentrer sur le robotaxi, est ce exact ? Je préfère demander à quelqu'un qui sait plutôt que lire avec trop de confiance ce que les médias écrivent... Merci pour ta réponse et pour tes précieuses analyses